# Fare sweep SOF -> TYO, out arriving Fri 18 Sep 2026, Tokyo dep Thu 24 Sep 2026
Run 2026-09-04. All prices seen live on Google Flights (curr=USD) or kiwi.com today.
Method: Google Flights `?tfs=` protobuf URLs (the `q=` form silently returns the homepage).
HARD FILTER: outbound must ARRIVE in Tokyo on 18 Sep. Dep 17 Sep needs "+1"; dep 16 Sep needs "+2".

## Sofia round trip (dep 17 Sep / Tokyo dep 24 Sep)
$1,477 LH/ANA 06:10 -> 13:15+1 HND, 2 stops MUC + KIX->ITM airport change
$1,478 LH/ANA 06:10 -> 10:35+1 HND, 2 stops MUC, KIX   <-- BOOKABLE, bag incl.
$1,591 LH/ANA 06:10 -> 07:50+1 HND, 1 stop MUC 5h20
$1,775 Turkish 15:50 -> 19:20+1 HND, 1 stop IST 8h45
$2,037 Turkish 21:10 -> 19:20+1 HND, 1 stop IST 3h25, 16h10 total (nicest trip)
$1,282 LOT via WAW arrives 19 Sep -> INVALID

## Sofia round trip (dep 16 Sep / Tokyo dep 24 Sep)  [+2 arrivals = 18 Sep]
$1,176-1,205 BA/JAL 21:25 -> 06:45+2 HND via LHR 10h25  == NOT BOOKABLE
   Google booking page: "We can't find booking options for this itinerary."
$1,254-1,293 BA/JAL 21:25 -> 07:00+2 HND via LHR 10h40  == also NOT BOOKABLE
$1,336 Bulgaria Air + Qatar 14:50 -> 19:35+2 NRT via BER, DOH, 46h45 total
$1,438 Turkish arrives 17 Sep -> INVALID

## Date flexibility (Tokyo dep held at 24 Sep)
dep 17 Sep, cheapest VALID: $1,477
dep 16 Sep, cheapest VALID: $1,176 (unbookable) / $1,336 bookable
Tokyo dep 25 Sep instead of 24: $1,477 -> $1,477. No material change.
Kiwi date grid: 18-25 Sep $1,228; 17-24 Sep $1,691; 16-23 Sep $1,346 (dates outside brief).

## Sofia one-ways (split-ticket test) - NOT competitive
SOF->TYO 17 Sep: $829 arrives 19 Sep INVALID; cheapest valid $1,205 Turkish 15:50->19:20+1
SOF->TYO 16 Sep: $849 BA/JAL 21:25->07:00+2 (valid)
TYO->SOF 24 Sep: $849 Emirates/flydubai NRT 22:30 -> SOF 14:25+1
Best split = $849 + $849 = $1,698. Worse than any round trip. Dropped.

## Alternative origins, round trip 17->24 Sep, cheapest fare ARRIVING 18 Sep
IST $882  Asiana  18:05 -> 18:25+1 NRT, 1 stop ICN 5h50   <-- BOOKABLE AT ASIANA.COM, bag incl.
VIE $1,159 KLM/ANA 09:30 -> 17:20+1 HND, 2 stops AMS, KIX
FRA $1,179 KLM 11:45 -> 10:25+1 NRT, 1 stop AMS 55m
ROM $1,210 ITA/ANA FCO 14:55 -> 10:25+1 HND NONSTOP
MIL $1,234 KLM LIN 11:00 -> 10:25+1 NRT / $1,281 ANA MXP->HND nonstop 11:20 -> 07:15+1
BUD $1,264 KLM 06:00 -> 10:25+1 NRT
MUC $1,277 KLM 07:00 -> 10:25+1 NRT
WAW $1,300 / ATH $1,230 / BEG $1,315 / LON $1,368
Any base fare >= $1,277 cannot beat the Istanbul all-in below, so MUC/WAW/ATH/BEG/LON are out on arithmetic.

## Positioning fares from Sofia (one-way, seen today)
SOF->IST 16 Sep: Turkish 21:10->22:40 $111
SOF->IST 17 Sep: Turkish 15:50->17:20 $111 (only 45m before Asiana dep - unusable)
                 Air Serbia 05:00->15:55 via BEG $128 (2h10 buffer, separate tickets, risky)
                 Turkish 09:35->11:05 $377
IST->SOF 25 Sep: Turkish 10:30 $94, 13:45 $94 (both BEFORE the 16:35 Asiana arrival)
                 Turkish 18:55->20:20 $209  <-- the usable one
IST->SOF 26 Sep: Turkish 13:45 $129
SOF->VIE 17 Sep: Air Serbia $107 / Austrian $166   VIE->SOF 25 Sep: Ryanair $67
SOF->FRA 17 Sep: Air Serbia 05:00->09:00 $115      FRA->SOF 25 Sep: Air Serbia $141 / LH $165
SOF->FCO 17 Sep: Bulgaria Air 07:00->07:55 $133    FCO->SOF 25 Sep: Wizz $105 / Ryanair CIA $84
SOF->MXP 17 Sep: Air Serbia ->08:30 $124; SOF->BGY Wizz 06:30->07:35 $134
                                                    BGY->SOF 25 Sep: Ryanair $28 / Wizz $70
SOF->BUD 17 Sep: Ryanair $48 / Wizz $59            BUD->SOF 25 Sep: Wizz $63
SOF->ATH 17 Sep: SKY express $106                  ATH->SOF 25 Sep: SKY express $77

## All-in totals (RT + both positioning legs + hotel where the connection forces one)
IST  882 + 111 + ~75 hotel + 209 = ~1,277   BAG INCLUDED
VIE 1,159 + 107 + ~75 hotel + 67  = ~1,408   (no same-day connection possible, 09:30 dep)
MIL 1,234 + 124 + 70              = ~1,428   (MXP->LIN airport change)
FRA 1,179 + 115 + 141             = ~1,435   (2h45 self-connection)
BUD 1,264 + 48 + ~75 hotel + 63   = ~1,450   (06:00 dep forces the overnight)
ROM 1,210 + 133 + 105             = ~1,448   (7h buffer, comfortable)
ATH 1,230 + 106 + ~75 hotel + 77  = ~1,488
SOF 1,478 straight through, nothing to add

## Kiwi.com (rendered fine headlessly)
$1,282 SOF 08:25 -> 14:30+1 HND, 2 stops Budapest + Beijing, self-transfer, 24h05
$1,304 SOF 08:25 -> 12:25+1 HND, same routing, 22h
$1,260 SOF 08:25 -> 17:30+1 HND, same routing, 27h05
All show bags 1/0/0 = carry-on only, NO checked bag. All "self-transfer", Ryanair-verified first leg.
Beijing self-transfer on a Bulgarian passport needs Chinese TWOV clearance and a baggage reclaim.
Kiwi's own "cheapest" $1,061 is 86h30m and misses the 18 Sep arrival entirely.

## Baggage on the three cheapest realistic itineraries
Asiana $882   : Google booking page states "1 free carry-on, 1st checked bag free"
LH/ANA $1,478 : Google booking page states "1 free carry-on, 1st checked bag free"
Kiwi $1,260   : 1 cabin bag, 0 checked. Bag must be bought per self-transfer segment.

## Price volatility observed
The SOF 16 Sep BA/JAL row rendered at $1,205 and then $1,176 within ~10 minutes. Treat +/-3% as noise.